USDINR 14 March 2013 : Wolfe Wave and EW Defining the Trade Setup.

USDINR is broadly moving in line with the perceptions I expressed in USDINR : Technical Perceptions and is presently doing B.c of blue EW count.  B.c which started from 52.89 may shape as an ED and must take USDINR above 55.382 when it is complete.  While I was analysing B.c, I spotted a Wolfe Wave, which targets 53.2 if it works out.  This Wolfe Wave is drawn in Red in the chart below.

 Expecting this B.c to be an ED, I am inclined to mark it as ABCDE and accordingly, A and probable B are marked in Blue.  The APF drawn from 52.89 has been breached downwards and a backtest may occur before USDINR heads for 53.2.   In another possibility, the backtest of baseline of WW itself may be due and that would happen at around 55.1.  The point to be kept in mind is that while doing so, USDINR should not cross 55.14.

Once the downmove is done, the ensuing upmove will guide us on the length of entire B from 51.365.  Broadly possibilities exist for 55.45 and 56.8.

Trade Setup

Aim to go short near LTL of blue APF(54.6) and baseline of red WW (55.1) with a SL of 55.15 and a target of 53.4-53.2.
Aim to go long at or below 53.2 with SL of 52.88 for a target of 55.45 and 56.8.
   

USDINR : The Fall may commence any time now.

USDINR, having broken the Black LTL that I mentioned in my post USDINR: At a crucial point , is now nicely poised for a downmove.  The downmove is also supported by a Wolfe wave (drawn in Blue) targeting 53.4 or lower, which also coincides with the median line of an APF (drawn in Green.  Based on the WW, APF and confluence zones of some of the TLs in the expected range for the move, the likely path USDINR may follow is shown in Red.

USDINR: At a crucial point

Both the counts of USDINR, which I had mentioned in my last post on USDINR : Technical Perceptions, still remain valid.  However, USDINR is currently knocking at a crucial door to open the flood gates for the count that was mentioned in blue.

At this juncture, the blue TL shown in the chart above, needs to be re-captured by the bears.  Coz if it went to bulls, there will be a decent possibility of USDINR continuing the rise.  A confirmation will come when 55.38 also is taken by bulls.

Trade Setup.  For Bulls, Longs can be initiated above the blue line with SL below the Black LTL for a targtet of 54.87, 55.62 and 56+.

For Bears, shorts can be initiated either below Blue TL or Below Black TL with SL just above the respective TLs for a target of 52.88, 51.36 and may be lower.

USDINR - Bearish Wolfe

USDINR has an active bearish Wolfe, which targets 53.1.

USDINR : Technical Perceptions.

The chart below is an attempt to introduce my perceptions on USDINR.

My most favorite count is the blue one.  The red one, as an alternate, keeps me on my toes.

Today's dip below the previous low has left me guessing but as long as the thin black channel is intact, USDINR is continuing to go down.  At this juncture, I am wary of the possibility of extended C5, whose first fractal was possibly done today.    More clarity may emerge tomorrow.