Thursday 14 March 2013

USDINR 14 March 2013 : Wolfe Wave and EW Defining the Trade Setup.

USDINR is broadly moving in line with the perceptions I expressed in USDINR : Technical Perceptions and is presently doing B.c of blue EW count.  B.c which started from 52.89 may shape as an ED and must take USDINR above 55.382 when it is complete.  While I was analysing B.c, I spotted a Wolfe Wave, which targets 53.2 if it works out.  This Wolfe Wave is drawn in Red in the chart below.


 Expecting this B.c to be an ED, I am inclined to mark it as ABCDE and accordingly, A and probable B are marked in Blue.  The APF drawn from 52.89 has been breached downwards and a backtest may occur before USDINR heads for 53.2.   In another possibility, the backtest of baseline of WW itself may be due and that would happen at around 55.1.  The point to be kept in mind is that while doing so, USDINR should not cross 55.14.

Once the downmove is done, the ensuing upmove will guide us on the length of entire B from 51.365.  Broadly possibilities exist for 55.45 and 56.8.

Trade Setup

Aim to go short near LTL of blue APF(54.6) and baseline of red WW (55.1) with a SL of 55.15 and a target of 53.4-53.2.
Aim to go long at or below 53.2 with SL of 52.88 for a target of 55.45 and 56.8.