It has been long since I wrote about USD/INR. Paucity of time has always kept me away and has also forced me to be cryptic most of the times.
After USD/INR did its high of 69.22, it dipped steadily in a corrective form to touch 58.25 in May 2014. Since then it started rising and has so far made a high of 67.04 in September this year. The high may be reset one more time, but is not guaranteed. There are three possibilities.
1. 67.04 still marks a sub fractal of B/5 and USD/INR may either reach closer to 69.22 or may even surpass it. IMHP, if it had to go that far, it may even threaten 72. But at this juncture, it looks less likely.
2 67.04 is B ending of a CT that commenced from 69.22 and the dip is C, with D and E to follow. If so, which looks more probable, the dip has potential to go till 58.25. My take is that it would reach somewhere between 59.8-60.9, if it follows this path. This possibility is also supported by a bearish WW (that has already failed once and would be alive only once USD/INR dips below 64.5).
3. 67.04 is X with W ending at 58.25, which again leaves a possibility of a dip below 58.25.
There is another possibility that the CT instead of commencing from 69.22 as 4th, has actually commenced from 58.25 and 67.04 is its A, This would ckeep USD/INR pair within 58.25-67.04 for atleast an year or may be more.
There are some more possibilities but then there is no ends to possibilities when you are working out EW fractals. For the time being, I am keeping these four possibilities in mind and trying to get to a trade-able plan.
The UTL for move from recent high of 67.04 is presently near 65.68. In post market moves, USD/INR has already crossed it and has dipped back below it. Inference is that the rise may have been completed. What ensues may be a 5th of an LD or a C of a corrective, both from 67.04. The high made now should be kept as reference to keep SLs, which would be well above 65.68 to provide cushion for mild spikes. With this setup, the targets could be 65.4/65.1/64.62/64.53/64.3/63.89.
If USD/INR starts sustaining above the falling channel, the position should be covered or should be exited as 72 would start becoming a possibility. If USD/INR shows the current levels in the market hours, the risk reward will be extremely favourable for a short.
After USD/INR did its high of 69.22, it dipped steadily in a corrective form to touch 58.25 in May 2014. Since then it started rising and has so far made a high of 67.04 in September this year. The high may be reset one more time, but is not guaranteed. There are three possibilities.
1. 67.04 still marks a sub fractal of B/5 and USD/INR may either reach closer to 69.22 or may even surpass it. IMHP, if it had to go that far, it may even threaten 72. But at this juncture, it looks less likely.
2 67.04 is B ending of a CT that commenced from 69.22 and the dip is C, with D and E to follow. If so, which looks more probable, the dip has potential to go till 58.25. My take is that it would reach somewhere between 59.8-60.9, if it follows this path. This possibility is also supported by a bearish WW (that has already failed once and would be alive only once USD/INR dips below 64.5).
3. 67.04 is X with W ending at 58.25, which again leaves a possibility of a dip below 58.25.
There is another possibility that the CT instead of commencing from 69.22 as 4th, has actually commenced from 58.25 and 67.04 is its A, This would ckeep USD/INR pair within 58.25-67.04 for atleast an year or may be more.
There are some more possibilities but then there is no ends to possibilities when you are working out EW fractals. For the time being, I am keeping these four possibilities in mind and trying to get to a trade-able plan.
The UTL for move from recent high of 67.04 is presently near 65.68. In post market moves, USD/INR has already crossed it and has dipped back below it. Inference is that the rise may have been completed. What ensues may be a 5th of an LD or a C of a corrective, both from 67.04. The high made now should be kept as reference to keep SLs, which would be well above 65.68 to provide cushion for mild spikes. With this setup, the targets could be 65.4/65.1/64.62/64.53/64.3/63.89.
If USD/INR starts sustaining above the falling channel, the position should be covered or should be exited as 72 would start becoming a possibility. If USD/INR shows the current levels in the market hours, the risk reward will be extremely favourable for a short.
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