An update on my post USDINR 25 August 2013 : EW Counts Revisited . The chart below says it all. Atleast the immediate moves.
Thursday 29 August 2013
Saturday 24 August 2013
USDINR 25 August 2013 : EW Counts Revisited
The price action in USDINR far exceeded my perceptions posted at USDINR 12 Aug 2013 : Peaking out and prompted me to revisit the EW setup. A fresh look after seeing data for past 15 years revealed the following:
The larger frame work....
A closer view...
EW counts :
Fractals of III
Fractals of 3
Fractals of (3)
Max 65.9. But if v started from 58.66, it may go upto 59.96 (which should be the basis for SL)
Fractals of v
** In progress
*** Projected.
(iv) may be over, but has scope to go down till 61.905.
(v) should not go over 65.9/65.96 based on count at one degree higher.
(iii) is not yet extended but it would be extended if v started from 58.66. In other possibility, (iii) could be extended with respect to (v), as it remains restricted to 65.9/65.96
Based on these counts, shorts could be initiated above 65.57 with SL of 65.96/66.01 for a target of 60.
The larger frame work....
A closer view...
EW counts :
| I | 39.48 | - | 51.94 | = | -12.46 | ||
| II | 51.94 | - | 43.225 | = | 8.715 | -69.9438 | |
| III | 43.225 | - | 69.5 | = | -26.275 | 210.8748** |
Fractals of III
| 1 | 43.225 | - | 53.74 | = | -10.515 | ||
| 2 | 53.74 | - | 48.57 | = | 5.17 | -49.1679 | |
| 3 | 48.57 | - | 69 | = | -20.43 | 194.2939** |
Fractals of 3
| (1) | 48.57 | - | 57.335 | = | -8.765 | ||
| (2) | 57.335 | - | 51.36 | = | 5.975 | -68.1689 | |
| (3) | 51.36 | - | 65.561 | = | -14.201 | 162.0194** |
Fractals of (3)
| i | 51.365 | - | 55.875 | = | -4.51 | ||
| ii | 55.875 | - | 52.89 | = | 2.985 | -66.1863 | |
| iii | 52.89 | - | 61.53 | = | -8.64 | 191.5743 | |
| iv | 61.53 | - | 58.6 | = | 2.93 | -33.912 | |
| v | 58.6 | - | 65.57 | = | -6.97 | 154.5455** |
Max 65.9. But if v started from 58.66, it may go upto 59.96 (which should be the basis for SL)
Fractals of v
| (i) | 58.6 | - | 61.905 | = | -3.305 | ||
| (ii) | 61.905 | - | 60.245 | = | 1.66 | -50.2269 | |
| (iii) | 60.245 | - | 65.561 | = | -5.316 | 160.8472 | |
| (iv) | 65.561 | - | 63.206 | = | 2.355 | -44.3002** | |
| (v) | 63.206 | - | 65.89 | = | -2.684 | 81.21029*** |
** In progress
*** Projected.
(iv) may be over, but has scope to go down till 61.905.
(v) should not go over 65.9/65.96 based on count at one degree higher.
(iii) is not yet extended but it would be extended if v started from 58.66. In other possibility, (iii) could be extended with respect to (v), as it remains restricted to 65.9/65.96
Based on these counts, shorts could be initiated above 65.57 with SL of 65.96/66.01 for a target of 60.
Monday 12 August 2013
USDINR 12 Aug 2013 : Peaking out
I had posted my last detailed post on USDINR at USDINR 10 July 2013 : Gets complicated and a short update on the likely EW counts at USDINR 01 August 2013 : The most preferred EW count. The moves so far continue to remain within expected alternates. The chart below is an update of how it looks for USDINR as on 12 August 2013.
This chart has guided me so far in the longer term for past six months or more and it still continues to remain the biggest influence on how I think about USDINR. The chart shows an APF in red and two SFFs in blue and purple. The reference points are shown in circles of respective colors. Some important resistance/supports within an object are shown with triangles of same color. Presently I expect the price action to remain within UTLs of blue and purple SFFs. A breach back of purple UTL needs to occur for any substantial correction or a fall below previous low. The EW count so far remain as
Trade Setup - Longs near 58 and shorts near 62.2 can be initiated as and when they are reached for targets to blue and purple UTLs respectively. SLs can be suitably taken beyond the respective TLs.
This chart has guided me so far in the longer term for past six months or more and it still continues to remain the biggest influence on how I think about USDINR. The chart shows an APF in red and two SFFs in blue and purple. The reference points are shown in circles of respective colors. Some important resistance/supports within an object are shown with triangles of same color. Presently I expect the price action to remain within UTLs of blue and purple SFFs. A breach back of purple UTL needs to occur for any substantial correction or a fall below previous low. The EW count so far remain as
| 1 | 51.365 | - | 55.875 | = | -4.51 | ||
| 2 | 55.875 | - | 52.89 | = | 2.985 | -66.1863 | |
| 3 | 52.89 | - | 61.905 | = | -9.015 | 199.8891 | |
| 4 | 61.905 | - | 58.46 | = | 3.445 | -38.2141 | |
| 5 | 58.46 | - | 62.97 | = | -4.51 | 100 |
Trade Setup - Longs near 58 and shorts near 62.2 can be initiated as and when they are reached for targets to blue and purple UTLs respectively. SLs can be suitably taken beyond the respective TLs.
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