USDINR 01 August 2013 : The most preferred EW count

This is what I am getting convinced at :
 

1	51.365	-	55.875	=	-4.51
2	55.875	-	52.89	=	2.985		-66.1863
3	52.89	-	61.908	=	-9.018		199.9557
4	61.908	-	58.46	=	3.448		-38.2346
5	58.46	-	62.97	=	-4.51		100

T1=

62.48743

, T2=

62.97

, T3=

64.97557

USDINR 23 July 2013 : The possible containments

USDINR in my perception has started the vth of 3rd wave.  The possible channels that may contain the rise are given in the chart below :

USDINR 10 July 2013 : Gets complicated.

 Long Term APFs

LTL of  Black APF is crucial.  If held, a new rise may be seen. 

MT APFs

A closer look on the chart above indicates that Blue APF is breached and needs to be regained, which may happen due to support of Black LTL.  If sustains below Blue LTL, the  purple APF will come into focus.

 ST APFs

Short term APFs also show that a crucial support zone was breached, which would be bearish if sustained.  Blue LTL remains the key for now.

EW

 EW has many alternates at this juncture and they all remain valid.  The correction reached 24% today, which leaves the gates open for a rise provided the breach is sustained.   Various possibilities are in the chart below:

ST Channel

The black UTL needs to be watched for an upward breach.  The presence of a positive divergence on hourly chart should also suggest that the bears should be cautious.

Wolfe Wave

I can figure out 3 bullish Wolfe waves in the short term.  The conservative WW targets 60.6+ and the aggressive may take a faster and steeper route for targets in excess of 65.

 EW Counts

Fractals of 3
i	52.89	-	55.14	=	-2.25
ii	55.14	-	53.64	=	1.5		-66.6667
iii	53.64	-	61.535	=	-7.895		350.8889
iv	61.535	-	59.645	=	1.89		-23.9392
v	59.645	-	61.895	=	-2.25		100
		-					28.49905
	T1=	62.94739	, T2=	61.895	, T3=	64.98761

Trade Setup
.
Short below 59.8 with SL 60 for target 58.5.  
Long above 59.9 with SL 59.6 (or between 58.5-58.3 with SL 57.4) for target of 60.6, 61.2 and possibly 61.9, 62.95 and 65.

USDINR 07 July 2013 : Becomes more bullish...correction overdue

The breach of 60.18 invalidated my previous preferred count and I hope the shorts/PEs were closed at this point.  The setup needs to be reviewed.  A look at long term charts reveals the following important zones:



















Any dip to blue median should be used for going long.  The support is seen around 59.5-59 zone and if this is conquered by bears, then 56 odd levels should come in a hurry.  But for now, let us see 62+ before initiating a short.

EW wise, the situation has changed and I am contemplating on the following counts (there are other alternates but let us get the clarity first)

1	51.365	-	55.875	=	-4.51
2	55.875	-	52.89	=	2.985		-66.1863
3	52.89	-	61.535	=	-8.645		191.6851***

 

Fractals of 3
i	52.89	-	55.14	=	-2.25
ii	55.14	-	53.64	=	1.5		-66.6667
iii	53.64	-	61.535	=	-7.895		350.8889***

Fractals of 3.iii
(i)	53.64	-	56.005	=	-2.365
(ii)	56.005	-	55.1	=	0.905		-38.2664
(iii)	55.1	-	60.755	=	-5.655		239.1121
(iv)	60.755	-	58.965	=	1.79		-31.6534
(v)	58.965	-	61.535	=	-2.57		108.6681

It may be over but can finish anywhere between 60.42657-62.45979.  Any shorts should have a tight SL now and one should wait for going long near or below 59.5.

USDINR 01 July 2013 : The corrective is in progress.

Here is what I feel for USDINR in the short term.......

The ew counts for A

1	60.755	-	59.68	=	1.075
2	59.68	-	60.72	=	-1.04		-96.7442
3	60.72	-	58.965	=	1.755		163.2558
4	58.965	-	59.603	=	-0.638		-36.3533
5	59.603	-	58.52	=	1.083		100.7442
	T1=	58.91922	, T2=	58.528	, T3=	57.41378