USDINR 25 August 2013 : EW Counts Revisited

The price action in USDINR far exceeded my perceptions posted at USDINR 12 Aug 2013 : Peaking out and prompted me to revisit the EW setup.  A fresh look after seeing data for past 15 years revealed the following:

The larger frame work....
 



















A closer view...


















EW counts :

I	39.48	-	51.94	=	-12.46
II	51.94	-	43.225	=	8.715		-69.9438
III	43.225	-	69.5	=	-26.275		210.8748**

Fractals of III

1	43.225	-	53.74	=	-10.515
2	53.74	-	48.57	=	5.17		-49.1679
3	48.57	-	69	=	-20.43		194.2939**

Fractals of 3

(1)	48.57	-	57.335	=	-8.765
(2)	57.335	-	51.36	=	5.975		-68.1689
(3)	51.36	-	65.561	=	-14.201		162.0194**

Fractals of (3)

i	51.365	-	55.875	=	-4.51
ii	55.875	-	52.89	=	2.985		-66.1863
iii	52.89	-	61.53	=	-8.64		191.5743
iv	61.53	-	58.6	=	2.93		-33.912
v	58.6	-	65.57	=	-6.97		154.5455**

Max 65.9.  But if v started from 58.66, it may go upto 59.96 (which should be the basis for SL)

Fractals of v
  

(i)	58.6	-	61.905	=	-3.305
(ii)	61.905	-	60.245	=	1.66		-50.2269
(iii)	60.245	-	65.561	=	-5.316		160.8472
(iv)	65.561	-	63.206	=	2.355		-44.3002**
(v)	63.206	-	65.89	=	-2.684		81.21029***

** In progress
*** Projected.

(iv) may be over, but has scope to go down till 61.905.
(v) should not go over 65.9/65.96 based on count at one degree higher.
(iii) is not yet extended but it would be extended if v started from 58.66.  In other possibility, (iii) could be extended with respect to (v), as it remains restricted to 65.9/65.96

Based on these counts, shorts could be initiated above 65.57 with SL of 65.96/66.01 for a target of 60.

USDINR 12 Aug 2013 : Peaking out

I had posted my last detailed post on USDINR at USDINR 10 July 2013 : Gets complicated and a short update on the likely EW counts at USDINR 01 August 2013 : The most preferred EW count. The moves so far continue to remain within expected alternates.  The chart below is an update of how it looks for USDINR as on 12 August 2013.

This chart has guided me so far in the longer term for past six months or more and it still continues to remain the biggest influence on how I think about USDINR.  The chart shows an APF in red and two SFFs in blue and purple.  The reference points are shown in circles of respective colors.  Some important resistance/supports within an object are shown with triangles of same color.  Presently I expect the price action to remain within UTLs of blue and purple SFFs.  A breach back of purple UTL needs to occur for any substantial correction or a fall below previous low.  The EW count so far remain as

1	51.365	-	55.875	=	-4.51
2	55.875	-	52.89	=	2.985		-66.1863
3	52.89	-	61.905	=	-9.015		199.8891
4	61.905	-	58.46	=	3.445		-38.2141
5	58.46	-	62.97	=	-4.51		100

Trade Setup  - Longs near 58 and shorts near 62.2 can be initiated as and when they are reached for targets to blue and purple UTLs respectively.  SLs can be suitably taken beyond the respective TLs.

USDINR 01 August 2013 : The most preferred EW count

This is what I am getting convinced at :
 

1	51.365	-	55.875	=	-4.51
2	55.875	-	52.89	=	2.985		-66.1863
3	52.89	-	61.908	=	-9.018		199.9557
4	61.908	-	58.46	=	3.448		-38.2346
5	58.46	-	62.97	=	-4.51		100

T1=

62.48743

, T2=

62.97

, T3=

64.97557

USDINR 23 July 2013 : The possible containments

USDINR in my perception has started the vth of 3rd wave.  The possible channels that may contain the rise are given in the chart below :

USDINR 10 July 2013 : Gets complicated.

 Long Term APFs

LTL of  Black APF is crucial.  If held, a new rise may be seen. 

MT APFs

A closer look on the chart above indicates that Blue APF is breached and needs to be regained, which may happen due to support of Black LTL.  If sustains below Blue LTL, the  purple APF will come into focus.

 ST APFs

Short term APFs also show that a crucial support zone was breached, which would be bearish if sustained.  Blue LTL remains the key for now.

EW

 EW has many alternates at this juncture and they all remain valid.  The correction reached 24% today, which leaves the gates open for a rise provided the breach is sustained.   Various possibilities are in the chart below:

ST Channel

The black UTL needs to be watched for an upward breach.  The presence of a positive divergence on hourly chart should also suggest that the bears should be cautious.

Wolfe Wave

I can figure out 3 bullish Wolfe waves in the short term.  The conservative WW targets 60.6+ and the aggressive may take a faster and steeper route for targets in excess of 65.

 EW Counts

Fractals of 3
i	52.89	-	55.14	=	-2.25
ii	55.14	-	53.64	=	1.5		-66.6667
iii	53.64	-	61.535	=	-7.895		350.8889
iv	61.535	-	59.645	=	1.89		-23.9392
v	59.645	-	61.895	=	-2.25		100
		-					28.49905
	T1=	62.94739	, T2=	61.895	, T3=	64.98761

Trade Setup
.
Short below 59.8 with SL 60 for target 58.5.  
Long above 59.9 with SL 59.6 (or between 58.5-58.3 with SL 57.4) for target of 60.6, 61.2 and possibly 61.9, 62.95 and 65.

USDINR 07 July 2013 : Becomes more bullish...correction overdue

The breach of 60.18 invalidated my previous preferred count and I hope the shorts/PEs were closed at this point.  The setup needs to be reviewed.  A look at long term charts reveals the following important zones:



















Any dip to blue median should be used for going long.  The support is seen around 59.5-59 zone and if this is conquered by bears, then 56 odd levels should come in a hurry.  But for now, let us see 62+ before initiating a short.

EW wise, the situation has changed and I am contemplating on the following counts (there are other alternates but let us get the clarity first)

1	51.365	-	55.875	=	-4.51
2	55.875	-	52.89	=	2.985		-66.1863
3	52.89	-	61.535	=	-8.645		191.6851***

 

Fractals of 3
i	52.89	-	55.14	=	-2.25
ii	55.14	-	53.64	=	1.5		-66.6667
iii	53.64	-	61.535	=	-7.895		350.8889***

Fractals of 3.iii
(i)	53.64	-	56.005	=	-2.365
(ii)	56.005	-	55.1	=	0.905		-38.2664
(iii)	55.1	-	60.755	=	-5.655		239.1121
(iv)	60.755	-	58.965	=	1.79		-31.6534
(v)	58.965	-	61.535	=	-2.57		108.6681

It may be over but can finish anywhere between 60.42657-62.45979.  Any shorts should have a tight SL now and one should wait for going long near or below 59.5.

USDINR 01 July 2013 : The corrective is in progress.

Here is what I feel for USDINR in the short term.......

The ew counts for A

1	60.755	-	59.68	=	1.075
2	59.68	-	60.72	=	-1.04		-96.7442
3	60.72	-	58.965	=	1.755		163.2558
4	58.965	-	59.603	=	-0.638		-36.3533
5	59.603	-	58.52	=	1.083		100.7442
	T1=	58.91922	, T2=	58.528	, T3=	57.41378