USDINR 23 July 2013 : The possible containments

USDINR in my perception has started the vth of 3rd wave.  The possible channels that may contain the rise are given in the chart below :

USDINR 10 July 2013 : Gets complicated.

 Long Term APFs

LTL of  Black APF is crucial.  If held, a new rise may be seen. 

MT APFs

A closer look on the chart above indicates that Blue APF is breached and needs to be regained, which may happen due to support of Black LTL.  If sustains below Blue LTL, the  purple APF will come into focus.

 ST APFs

Short term APFs also show that a crucial support zone was breached, which would be bearish if sustained.  Blue LTL remains the key for now.

EW

 EW has many alternates at this juncture and they all remain valid.  The correction reached 24% today, which leaves the gates open for a rise provided the breach is sustained.   Various possibilities are in the chart below:

ST Channel

The black UTL needs to be watched for an upward breach.  The presence of a positive divergence on hourly chart should also suggest that the bears should be cautious.

Wolfe Wave

I can figure out 3 bullish Wolfe waves in the short term.  The conservative WW targets 60.6+ and the aggressive may take a faster and steeper route for targets in excess of 65.

 EW Counts

Fractals of 3
i	52.89	-	55.14	=	-2.25
ii	55.14	-	53.64	=	1.5		-66.6667
iii	53.64	-	61.535	=	-7.895		350.8889
iv	61.535	-	59.645	=	1.89		-23.9392
v	59.645	-	61.895	=	-2.25		100
		-					28.49905
	T1=	62.94739	, T2=	61.895	, T3=	64.98761

Trade Setup
.
Short below 59.8 with SL 60 for target 58.5.  
Long above 59.9 with SL 59.6 (or between 58.5-58.3 with SL 57.4) for target of 60.6, 61.2 and possibly 61.9, 62.95 and 65.

USDINR 07 July 2013 : Becomes more bullish...correction overdue

The breach of 60.18 invalidated my previous preferred count and I hope the shorts/PEs were closed at this point.  The setup needs to be reviewed.  A look at long term charts reveals the following important zones:



















Any dip to blue median should be used for going long.  The support is seen around 59.5-59 zone and if this is conquered by bears, then 56 odd levels should come in a hurry.  But for now, let us see 62+ before initiating a short.

EW wise, the situation has changed and I am contemplating on the following counts (there are other alternates but let us get the clarity first)

1	51.365	-	55.875	=	-4.51
2	55.875	-	52.89	=	2.985		-66.1863
3	52.89	-	61.535	=	-8.645		191.6851***

 

Fractals of 3
i	52.89	-	55.14	=	-2.25
ii	55.14	-	53.64	=	1.5		-66.6667
iii	53.64	-	61.535	=	-7.895		350.8889***

Fractals of 3.iii
(i)	53.64	-	56.005	=	-2.365
(ii)	56.005	-	55.1	=	0.905		-38.2664
(iii)	55.1	-	60.755	=	-5.655		239.1121
(iv)	60.755	-	58.965	=	1.79		-31.6534
(v)	58.965	-	61.535	=	-2.57		108.6681

It may be over but can finish anywhere between 60.42657-62.45979.  Any shorts should have a tight SL now and one should wait for going long near or below 59.5.

USDINR 01 July 2013 : The corrective is in progress.

Here is what I feel for USDINR in the short term.......

The ew counts for A

1	60.755	-	59.68	=	1.075
2	59.68	-	60.72	=	-1.04		-96.7442
3	60.72	-	58.965	=	1.755		163.2558
4	58.965	-	59.603	=	-0.638		-36.3533
5	59.603	-	58.52	=	1.083		100.7442
	T1=	58.91922	, T2=	58.528	, T3=	57.41378

USDINR 25 June 2013: A Short Term View

The chart below depicts the likely move tomorrow (expectedly in the opening couple of hours) as a follow up on my yesterday's post USDINR 24 June 2013 : Getting Ready for a Slide

Here is the chart....

USDINR 24 June 2013 : Getting Ready for a Slide.

The charts below will narrate the story for USDINR......

 EW Counts

1	51.365	-	55.875	=	-4.51
2	55.875	-	52.89	=	2.985		-66.1863
3	52.89	-	59.977	=	-7.087		157.1397
4	59.977	-	58.33	=	1.647		-23.2397
5	58.33	-	62.71	=	-4.38		97.11752

 These counts are indicative from 4 onwards.  Otherwise, 4 can do anything upto 50% of 3, which is 3.54.  5th however, must not do more than 4.37 as in that case it would render 3rd as unextended.  This would necessitate that 5th itself becomes an extended wave and 5th would require to do atleast 7.3 points from wherever it starts. Other important and conservative possibilities are :



1.

4	59.977	-	57.27	=	2.707		-38.1967
5	57.27	-	61.65	=	-4.38		97.11752

 2.

4	59.977	-	56.44	=	3.537		-49.9083
5	56.44	-	60.82	=	-4.38		97.11752

 APFs

 Some Imaginations - The Wild Ones

Expected Price points -   The chart below shows the expected price points for the correction.  The first two are possibly done....

USDINR 14 March 2013 : Wolfe Wave and EW Defining the Trade Setup.

USDINR is broadly moving in line with the perceptions I expressed in USDINR : Technical Perceptions and is presently doing B.c of blue EW count.  B.c which started from 52.89 may shape as an ED and must take USDINR above 55.382 when it is complete.  While I was analysing B.c, I spotted a Wolfe Wave, which targets 53.2 if it works out.  This Wolfe Wave is drawn in Red in the chart below.

 Expecting this B.c to be an ED, I am inclined to mark it as ABCDE and accordingly, A and probable B are marked in Blue.  The APF drawn from 52.89 has been breached downwards and a backtest may occur before USDINR heads for 53.2.   In another possibility, the backtest of baseline of WW itself may be due and that would happen at around 55.1.  The point to be kept in mind is that while doing so, USDINR should not cross 55.14.

Once the downmove is done, the ensuing upmove will guide us on the length of entire B from 51.365.  Broadly possibilities exist for 55.45 and 56.8.

Trade Setup

Aim to go short near LTL of blue APF(54.6) and baseline of red WW (55.1) with a SL of 55.15 and a target of 53.4-53.2.
Aim to go long at or below 53.2 with SL of 52.88 for a target of 55.45 and 56.8.