EW Counts
| 1 | 51.365 | - | 55.875 | = | -4.51 | ||
| 2 | 55.875 | - | 52.89 | = | 2.985 | -66.1863 | |
| 3 | 52.89 | - | 59.977 | = | -7.087 | 157.1397 | |
| 4 | 59.977 | - | 58.33 | = | 1.647 | -23.2397 | |
| 5 | 58.33 | - | 62.71 | = | -4.38 | 97.11752 |
These counts are indicative from 4 onwards. Otherwise, 4 can do anything upto 50% of 3, which is 3.54. 5th however, must not do more than 4.37 as in that case it would render 3rd as unextended. This would necessitate that 5th itself becomes an extended wave and 5th would require to do atleast 7.3 points from wherever it starts. Other important and conservative possibilities are :
1.
| 4 | 59.977 | - | 57.27 | = | 2.707 | -38.1967 | |
| 5 | 57.27 | - | 61.65 | = | -4.38 | 97.11752 |
2.
| 4 | 59.977 | - | 56.44 | = | 3.537 | -49.9083 | |
| 5 | 56.44 | - | 60.82 | = | -4.38 | 97.11752 |
APFs
Some Imaginations - The Wild Ones
Expected Price points - The chart below shows the expected price points for the correction. The first two are possibly done....
No problem Pawan. You can use your own. However, kindly maintain the decorum of a public domain. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteLooks good to me Falcon. I saw one more comment.. wave 3 is still not 161 of 1? You think some more room for up side. I was struglling to put EW count but your numbers make very sense. I was thinking that wave is complete. Looks like we are in 4. MAX 23 to 38% retracement and move back to 5.. that's what i understood. Correct me if im wrong. Good job man.
ReplyDeleteSrinath, it would make sense to look at this move as an impulse from 51.36 as it has gone above 1.382 times the previous major fall from 57.33. With that view, if it does not cross 60.18 in this move, this can be taken as 3 and 5 can be limited to 61.8% of 3....what you appreciate is what I intended to put down above.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Thanks Falcon for your response. Again, Excellent job. It's neat work and i really liked it and learning from your chart on counting EWs.
ReplyDeleteThanks again,
Srinath
Hi Falcon, your study looks good to me. But I am a small exporter, and i have just started hedging from last 2 months only. And i am already into losses so please can you help me where the usd/inr is heading.
ReplyDeleteDear Sach, as far as I perceive, the rise in USDINR is not yet over and this view remains till it goes below 51.36-52.89 TL. Having stated that, I would like to place on record that I expect USDINR to remain between 58-62 for some time. The current fall may soon be recovered and it may go past 60.755 (but must not go above 61.18 as per one alternate). And if it holds 61.18, the next move should take it towards 58.3 or so. Its a dynamic environment and is needed to be managed dynamically...:). I have no clue as t how you intend to hedge, but my views on USDINR do not see it going beyond the 58-62 range for next few months....and I feel upper limit is more fragile.
ReplyDeleteFalcon,Could you please post updated charts? Thanks, Srinath
ReplyDeleteBy the way - general question. Why did you choose the FALCON name. I work for aerospace industry and airplane enthusiastic as well. Just curious to know.
ReplyDeleteJust that I like the agility of a Falcon...:)
ReplyDeleteChart updates may have to wait a bit.
Time for updating the charts Sir,
ReplyDeleteHope we will get it