The chart below shows a possibility that an ET may be underway as either A4 or as B, following which, another low is going to be made. For the time being, USDINR may target 63.8 or so and then dip below 60.88.
Thursday, 3 October 2013
Sunday, 1 September 2013
USD/INR 01 September 2013 : Tested with EWO
Monthly :
Weekly :
Daily : Here onwards counting stand alone from 53.64. O marked in the chart is equivalent to red 2 in weekly chart.
4 Hourly :
Weekly :
Thursday, 29 August 2013
USDINR 29 August 2013 : An update
An update on my post USDINR 25 August 2013 : EW Counts Revisited . The chart below says it all. Atleast the immediate moves.
Saturday, 24 August 2013
USDINR 25 August 2013 : EW Counts Revisited
The price action in USDINR far exceeded my perceptions posted at USDINR 12 Aug 2013 : Peaking out and prompted me to revisit the EW setup. A fresh look after seeing data for past 15 years revealed the following:
The larger frame work....
A closer view...
EW counts :
Fractals of III
Fractals of 3
Fractals of (3)
Max 65.9. But if v started from 58.66, it may go upto 59.96 (which should be the basis for SL)
Fractals of v
** In progress
*** Projected.
(iv) may be over, but has scope to go down till 61.905.
(v) should not go over 65.9/65.96 based on count at one degree higher.
(iii) is not yet extended but it would be extended if v started from 58.66. In other possibility, (iii) could be extended with respect to (v), as it remains restricted to 65.9/65.96
Based on these counts, shorts could be initiated above 65.57 with SL of 65.96/66.01 for a target of 60.
The larger frame work....
A closer view...
EW counts :
| I | 39.48 | - | 51.94 | = | -12.46 | ||
| II | 51.94 | - | 43.225 | = | 8.715 | -69.9438 | |
| III | 43.225 | - | 69.5 | = | -26.275 | 210.8748** |
Fractals of III
| 1 | 43.225 | - | 53.74 | = | -10.515 | ||
| 2 | 53.74 | - | 48.57 | = | 5.17 | -49.1679 | |
| 3 | 48.57 | - | 69 | = | -20.43 | 194.2939** |
Fractals of 3
| (1) | 48.57 | - | 57.335 | = | -8.765 | ||
| (2) | 57.335 | - | 51.36 | = | 5.975 | -68.1689 | |
| (3) | 51.36 | - | 65.561 | = | -14.201 | 162.0194** |
Fractals of (3)
| i | 51.365 | - | 55.875 | = | -4.51 | ||
| ii | 55.875 | - | 52.89 | = | 2.985 | -66.1863 | |
| iii | 52.89 | - | 61.53 | = | -8.64 | 191.5743 | |
| iv | 61.53 | - | 58.6 | = | 2.93 | -33.912 | |
| v | 58.6 | - | 65.57 | = | -6.97 | 154.5455** |
Max 65.9. But if v started from 58.66, it may go upto 59.96 (which should be the basis for SL)
Fractals of v
| (i) | 58.6 | - | 61.905 | = | -3.305 | ||
| (ii) | 61.905 | - | 60.245 | = | 1.66 | -50.2269 | |
| (iii) | 60.245 | - | 65.561 | = | -5.316 | 160.8472 | |
| (iv) | 65.561 | - | 63.206 | = | 2.355 | -44.3002** | |
| (v) | 63.206 | - | 65.89 | = | -2.684 | 81.21029*** |
** In progress
*** Projected.
(iv) may be over, but has scope to go down till 61.905.
(v) should not go over 65.9/65.96 based on count at one degree higher.
(iii) is not yet extended but it would be extended if v started from 58.66. In other possibility, (iii) could be extended with respect to (v), as it remains restricted to 65.9/65.96
Based on these counts, shorts could be initiated above 65.57 with SL of 65.96/66.01 for a target of 60.
Monday, 12 August 2013
USDINR 12 Aug 2013 : Peaking out
I had posted my last detailed post on USDINR at USDINR 10 July 2013 : Gets complicated and a short update on the likely EW counts at USDINR 01 August 2013 : The most preferred EW count. The moves so far continue to remain within expected alternates. The chart below is an update of how it looks for USDINR as on 12 August 2013.
This chart has guided me so far in the longer term for past six months or more and it still continues to remain the biggest influence on how I think about USDINR. The chart shows an APF in red and two SFFs in blue and purple. The reference points are shown in circles of respective colors. Some important resistance/supports within an object are shown with triangles of same color. Presently I expect the price action to remain within UTLs of blue and purple SFFs. A breach back of purple UTL needs to occur for any substantial correction or a fall below previous low. The EW count so far remain as
Trade Setup - Longs near 58 and shorts near 62.2 can be initiated as and when they are reached for targets to blue and purple UTLs respectively. SLs can be suitably taken beyond the respective TLs.
This chart has guided me so far in the longer term for past six months or more and it still continues to remain the biggest influence on how I think about USDINR. The chart shows an APF in red and two SFFs in blue and purple. The reference points are shown in circles of respective colors. Some important resistance/supports within an object are shown with triangles of same color. Presently I expect the price action to remain within UTLs of blue and purple SFFs. A breach back of purple UTL needs to occur for any substantial correction or a fall below previous low. The EW count so far remain as
| 1 | 51.365 | - | 55.875 | = | -4.51 | ||
| 2 | 55.875 | - | 52.89 | = | 2.985 | -66.1863 | |
| 3 | 52.89 | - | 61.905 | = | -9.015 | 199.8891 | |
| 4 | 61.905 | - | 58.46 | = | 3.445 | -38.2141 | |
| 5 | 58.46 | - | 62.97 | = | -4.51 | 100 |
Trade Setup - Longs near 58 and shorts near 62.2 can be initiated as and when they are reached for targets to blue and purple UTLs respectively. SLs can be suitably taken beyond the respective TLs.
Wednesday, 31 July 2013
USDINR 01 August 2013 : The most preferred EW count
This is what I am getting convinced at :
| 1 | 51.365 | - | 55.875 | = | -4.51 | ||
| 2 | 55.875 | - | 52.89 | = | 2.985 | -66.1863 | |
| 3 | 52.89 | - | 61.908 | = | -9.018 | 199.9557 | |
| 4 | 61.908 | - | 58.46 | = | 3.448 | -38.2346 | |
| 5 | 58.46 | - | 62.97 | = | -4.51 | 100 |
| T1= | 62.48743 | , T2= | 62.97 | , T3= | 64.97557 |
Monday, 22 July 2013
USDINR 23 July 2013 : The possible containments
USDINR in my perception has started the vth of 3rd wave. The possible channels that may contain the rise are given in the chart below :
Wednesday, 10 July 2013
USDINR 10 July 2013 : Gets complicated.
LTL of Black APF is crucial. If held, a new rise may be seen.
MT APFs
A closer look on the chart above indicates that Blue APF is breached and needs to be regained, which may happen due to support of Black LTL. If sustains below Blue LTL, the purple APF will come into focus.
ST APFs
Short term APFs also show that a crucial support zone was breached, which would be bearish if sustained. Blue LTL remains the key for now.
EW
EW has many alternates at this juncture and they all remain valid. The correction reached 24% today, which leaves the gates open for a rise provided the breach is sustained. Various possibilities are in the chart below:
ST Channel
The black UTL needs to be watched for an upward breach. The presence of a positive divergence on hourly chart should also suggest that the bears should be cautious.
Wolfe Wave
I can figure out 3 bullish Wolfe waves in the short term. The conservative WW targets 60.6+ and the aggressive may take a faster and steeper route for targets in excess of 65.
| Fractals of 3 | |||||||
| i | 52.89 | - | 55.14 | = | -2.25 | ||
| ii | 55.14 | - | 53.64 | = | 1.5 | -66.6667 | |
| iii | 53.64 | - | 61.535 | = | -7.895 | 350.8889 | |
| iv | 61.535 | - | 59.645 | = | 1.89 | -23.9392 | |
| v | 59.645 | - | 61.895 | = | -2.25 | 100 | |
| - | 28.49905 | ||||||
| T1= | 62.94739 | , T2= | 61.895 | , T3= | 64.98761 | ||
Trade Setup
.
Short below 59.8 with SL 60 for target 58.5.
Long above 59.9 with SL 59.6 (or between 58.5-58.3 with SL 57.4) for target of 60.6, 61.2 and possibly 61.9, 62.95 and 65.
Saturday, 6 July 2013
USDINR 07 July 2013 : Becomes more bullish...correction overdue
The breach of 60.18 invalidated my previous preferred count and I hope the shorts/PEs were closed at this point. The setup needs to be reviewed. A look at long term charts reveals the following important zones:
Any dip to blue median should be used for going long. The support is seen around 59.5-59 zone and if this is conquered by bears, then 56 odd levels should come in a hurry. But for now, let us see 62+ before initiating a short.
EW wise, the situation has changed and I am contemplating on the following counts (there are other alternates but let us get the clarity first)
It may be over but can finish anywhere between 60.42657-62.45979. Any shorts should have a tight SL now and one should wait for going long near or below 59.5.
Any dip to blue median should be used for going long. The support is seen around 59.5-59 zone and if this is conquered by bears, then 56 odd levels should come in a hurry. But for now, let us see 62+ before initiating a short.
EW wise, the situation has changed and I am contemplating on the following counts (there are other alternates but let us get the clarity first)
| 1 | 51.365 | - | 55.875 | = | -4.51 | ||
| 2 | 55.875 | - | 52.89 | = | 2.985 | -66.1863 | |
| 3 | 52.89 | - | 61.535 | = | -8.645 | 191.6851*** |
| Fractals of 3 | |||||||
| i | 52.89 | - | 55.14 | = | -2.25 | ||
| ii | 55.14 | - | 53.64 | = | 1.5 | -66.6667 | |
| iii | 53.64 | - | 61.535 | = | -7.895 | 350.8889*** | |
| Fractals of 3.iii | |||||||
| (i) | 53.64 | - | 56.005 | = | -2.365 | ||
| (ii) | 56.005 | - | 55.1 | = | 0.905 | -38.2664 | |
| (iii) | 55.1 | - | 60.755 | = | -5.655 | 239.1121 | |
| (iv) | 60.755 | - | 58.965 | = | 1.79 | -31.6534 | |
| (v) | 58.965 | - | 61.535 | = | -2.57 | 108.6681 | |
It may be over but can finish anywhere between 60.42657-62.45979. Any shorts should have a tight SL now and one should wait for going long near or below 59.5.
Monday, 1 July 2013
USDINR 01 July 2013 : The corrective is in progress.
Here is what I feel for USDINR in the short term.......
The ew counts for A
The ew counts for A
| 1 | 60.755 | - | 59.68 | = | 1.075 | ||
| 2 | 59.68 | - | 60.72 | = | -1.04 | -96.7442 | |
| 3 | 60.72 | - | 58.965 | = | 1.755 | 163.2558 | |
| 4 | 58.965 | - | 59.603 | = | -0.638 | -36.3533 | |
| 5 | 59.603 | - | 58.52 | = | 1.083 | 100.7442 | |
| T1= | 58.91922 | , T2= | 58.528 | , T3= | 57.41378 |
Tuesday, 25 June 2013
USDINR 25 June 2013: A Short Term View
The chart below depicts the likely move tomorrow (expectedly in the opening couple of hours) as a follow up on my yesterday's post USDINR 24 June 2013 : Getting Ready for a Slide
Here is the chart....
Here is the chart....
Saturday, 22 June 2013
USDINR 24 June 2013 : Getting Ready for a Slide.
EW Counts
| 1 | 51.365 | - | 55.875 | = | -4.51 | ||
| 2 | 55.875 | - | 52.89 | = | 2.985 | -66.1863 | |
| 3 | 52.89 | - | 59.977 | = | -7.087 | 157.1397 | |
| 4 | 59.977 | - | 58.33 | = | 1.647 | -23.2397 | |
| 5 | 58.33 | - | 62.71 | = | -4.38 | 97.11752 |
These counts are indicative from 4 onwards. Otherwise, 4 can do anything upto 50% of 3, which is 3.54. 5th however, must not do more than 4.37 as in that case it would render 3rd as unextended. This would necessitate that 5th itself becomes an extended wave and 5th would require to do atleast 7.3 points from wherever it starts. Other important and conservative possibilities are :
1.
| 4 | 59.977 | - | 57.27 | = | 2.707 | -38.1967 | |
| 5 | 57.27 | - | 61.65 | = | -4.38 | 97.11752 |
2.
| 4 | 59.977 | - | 56.44 | = | 3.537 | -49.9083 | |
| 5 | 56.44 | - | 60.82 | = | -4.38 | 97.11752 |
APFs
Some Imaginations - The Wild Ones
Expected Price points - The chart below shows the expected price points for the correction. The first two are possibly done....
Thursday, 14 March 2013
USDINR 14 March 2013 : Wolfe Wave and EW Defining the Trade Setup.
USDINR is broadly moving in line with the perceptions I expressed in USDINR : Technical Perceptions and is presently doing B.c of blue EW count. B.c which started from 52.89 may shape as an ED and must take USDINR above 55.382 when it is complete. While I was analysing B.c, I spotted a Wolfe Wave, which targets 53.2 if it works out. This Wolfe Wave is drawn in Red in the chart below.
Expecting this B.c to be an ED, I am inclined to mark it as ABCDE and accordingly, A and probable B are marked in Blue. The APF drawn from 52.89 has been breached downwards and a backtest may occur before USDINR heads for 53.2. In another possibility, the backtest of baseline of WW itself may be due and that would happen at around 55.1. The point to be kept in mind is that while doing so, USDINR should not cross 55.14.
Once the downmove is done, the ensuing upmove will guide us on the length of entire B from 51.365. Broadly possibilities exist for 55.45 and 56.8.
Trade Setup
Aim to go short near LTL of blue APF(54.6) and baseline of red WW (55.1) with a SL of 55.15 and a target of 53.4-53.2.
Aim to go long at or below 53.2 with SL of 52.88 for a target of 55.45 and 56.8.
Expecting this B.c to be an ED, I am inclined to mark it as ABCDE and accordingly, A and probable B are marked in Blue. The APF drawn from 52.89 has been breached downwards and a backtest may occur before USDINR heads for 53.2. In another possibility, the backtest of baseline of WW itself may be due and that would happen at around 55.1. The point to be kept in mind is that while doing so, USDINR should not cross 55.14.
Once the downmove is done, the ensuing upmove will guide us on the length of entire B from 51.365. Broadly possibilities exist for 55.45 and 56.8.
Trade Setup
Aim to go short near LTL of blue APF(54.6) and baseline of red WW (55.1) with a SL of 55.15 and a target of 53.4-53.2.
Aim to go long at or below 53.2 with SL of 52.88 for a target of 55.45 and 56.8.
Wednesday, 20 February 2013
USDINR : The Fall may commence any time now.
USDINR, having broken the Black LTL that I mentioned in my post USDINR: At a crucial point , is now nicely poised for a downmove. The downmove is also supported by a Wolfe wave (drawn in Blue) targeting 53.4 or lower, which also coincides with the median line of an APF (drawn in Green. Based on the WW, APF and confluence zones of some of the TLs in the expected range for the move, the likely path USDINR may follow is shown in Red.
Saturday, 16 February 2013
USDINR: At a crucial point
Both the counts of USDINR, which I had mentioned in my last post on USDINR : Technical Perceptions, still remain valid. However, USDINR is currently knocking at a crucial door to open the flood gates for the count that was mentioned in blue.
20130216151438.jpg)
At this juncture, the blue TL shown in the chart above, needs to be re-captured by the bears. Coz if it went to bulls, there will be a decent possibility of USDINR continuing the rise. A confirmation will come when 55.38 also is taken by bulls.
Trade Setup. For Bulls, Longs can be initiated above the blue line with SL below the Black LTL for a targtet of 54.87, 55.62 and 56+.
For Bears, shorts can be initiated either below Blue TL or Below Black TL with SL just above the respective TLs for a target of 52.88, 51.36 and may be lower.
Tuesday, 12 February 2013
20130213071726.jpg)
Wednesday, 6 February 2013
USDINR : Technical Perceptions.
The chart below is an attempt to introduce my perceptions on USDINR.
My most favorite count is the blue one. The red one, as an alternate, keeps me on my toes.
Today's dip below the previous low has left me guessing but as long as the thin black channel is intact, USDINR is continuing to go down. At this juncture, I am wary of the possibility of extended C5, whose first fractal was possibly done today. More clarity may emerge tomorrow.
My most favorite count is the blue one. The red one, as an alternate, keeps me on my toes.
Today's dip below the previous low has left me guessing but as long as the thin black channel is intact, USDINR is continuing to go down. At this juncture, I am wary of the possibility of extended C5, whose first fractal was possibly done today. More clarity may emerge tomorrow.
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